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Your conditions: 王丹
  • Model Exploration and Value Innovation of Rural Public Cultural Services for Promoting Rural Revitalization in China

    Subjects: Library Science,Information Science >> Libraries submitted time 2024-06-02 Cooperative journals: 《高校图书馆工作》

    Abstract: In order to solve the problem of unbalanced and inadequate development in urban and rural areas and further improve the living standards of farmers, the rural revitalization strategy has been put forward in China. Rural cultural revitalization is an important part of rural revitalization, and rural public cultural service is the main carrier of rural cultural revitalization. Through literature research, network research and case analysis, the article makes a systematic review of the research and practice results of rural public cultural services in China to promote rural revitalization, analyzing in depth the logical relationship and internal mechanism of rural public cultural services to promote rural revitalization. The study finds that there are three main models of rural public cultural services to advance rural revitalization:cultural soul-building, integration of culture and tourism, and cultural and agricultural mutual assistance. The article also analyzes how rural public cultural services can better promote rural revitalization and achieve high-quality development with respect to key elements such as environmental patterns, participating subjects, product services, and realization methods.

  • 大数据时代我国学术期刊面临的挑战与应对

    Subjects: Digital Publishing >> New Media submitted time 2023-10-08 Cooperative journals: 《中国传媒科技》

    Abstract:【目的】随着社会的发展和科技的进步,大数据时代已经到来,它给学术期刊的发展带来了不可避免的影响,笔者希望通过对大数据时代学术期刊的办刊要求和我国学术期刊的现状进行分析,对我国学术期刊今后的发展给出应对建议。【方法】通过对时效性要求、创新性要求、准确定位的要求和技术性要求等方面分析大数据时代学术期刊面临的挑战。【结果】我国学术期刊存在刊发周期较长,对新媒体、大数据的利用形式和效果不佳,缺乏专业数据人员等问题。【结论】我国学术期刊可以通过利用大数据为编辑工作服务、提升编辑素养、完善服务功能、加大对硬件设备和人才培养的投入力度等方面的提升来应对大数据时代的挑战。

  • 开放科学背景下我国科技期刊发展探索

    Subjects: Digital Publishing >> New Media submitted time 2023-10-08 Cooperative journals: 《中国传媒科技》

    Abstract:【目的】开放科学是为了真正实现科技期刊成果无条件地向公众开放,达到科研成果的资源共享,打破人类学术交流的壁垒,是当今科技期刊的必然发展方向,文章旨在对我国科技期刊在开放科学背景下的发展给出探索性建议。【方法】文章对国际与国内科技期刊在开放获取、开放同行评议、预印本平台等方面的现状进行比较。【结果】我国科技期刊在开放科学大背景下的发展还存在一定的不足之处。【结论】我国科技期刊可以通过加大政策资金的支持、发展融合出版、完善设施建设、增强人才培养、开展国际合作等方式来促进发展。

  • 电视节目微信公众平台互动传播策略

    Subjects: Digital Publishing >> New Media submitted time 2023-10-08 Cooperative journals: 《中国传媒科技》

    Abstract:微信自诞生起不过短短十年间便发展成为国内即时移动社交平台的领军品牌,这是其具有独特技术优势的必然结果。就电视节目的互动传播而言,微信公众平台不仅受众面大、数量多、传播速度快,而且形式多样,内容丰富,吸引力大。不过,实践过程中个别电视节目微信公众平台互动传播却存在形式刻板、内容单一,时效性不足,信息量有限等问题,已不同程度制约了微信公众平台充分发挥积极作用。新时期电视节目微信公众平台优化传播互动当格外关注保持同步和充分拓展的基本方向,不仅需要提高认识水平、完善制度供给,而且需要保持合理适度的信息分享与交流热度,突出专业特色,还要充分利用数据分析提升主动推送的精准性、有效性。

  • 对建立健全学术期刊预警制度的思考

    Subjects: Digital Publishing >> New Media submitted time 2023-10-08 Cooperative journals: 《中国传媒科技》

    Abstract:为了加强学术期刊诚信建设,完善学术期刊的管理制度,本文通过解读国家有关科研诚信的相关政策,利用调查研究以及文献分析等方法,并结合学术期刊发展现状,阐述了什么是学术期刊预警制度,分析了建立预警制度的必要性和紧迫性,最后有针对性地提出了建立健全预警制度的意见和建议。本文提出从建立评价标准和调整机制、确定名单和机构的权威性、加强宣传和执行力度以及建立明确的惩罚标准四个方面,建立健全《若干意见》中提到的"学术期刊预警制度"。同时指出,建立学术期刊预警制度是科研工作者的迫切期待,也是学术期刊正本清源的需要,还是期刊管理手段的有益补充。建立学术期刊预警名单对学术期刊的规范化发展可以起到一定的警示和督促作用,也可对国家的科研诚信建设起到一定的推动作用。

  • The Potential Patterns of Symptoms of Upper Respiratory Tract Infections in the Public and Their Effects on Antibiotic Use Behavior

    Subjects: Physics >> General Physics: Statistical and Quantum Mechanics, Quantum Information, etc. submitted time 2023-08-31 Cooperative journals: 《中国全科医学》

    Abstract:背景 抗生素滥用导致的耐药问题已成全球重大公共卫生议题,减少公众上呼吸道感染的抗生素不合理使用是我国治理抗生素滥用的重要策略,识别上呼吸道感染疾病病症特点及其对抗生素不合理使用行为的影响有助于临床医生设计更为精准的干预政策。目的 定量分析公众上呼吸道感染症状的潜在模式,探究其对抗生素使用行为的影响。方法 本研究采用整群随机抽样调查,于 2022-07-2008-02 选取重庆市三个县(区)的公众作为调查对象。调查公众上呼吸道感染疾病症状、公众上呼吸道感染抗生素使用行为、公众抗生素使用知识及人口学特征。采用潜在类别分析方法鉴别公众上呼吸道感染疾病症状的潜在模式,采用多因素 Logistic 回归分析探索不同潜在症状模式对抗生素使用行为的影响。结果 815 位公众参与本研究。其中,30.06%(245/815)受访者存在无处方从药店购买抗生素,14.72%(120/815)受访者使用过抗生素自我药疗以应对上呼吸道感染。公众抗生素合理使用知识水平较低〔(2.31.7)分〕。上呼吸道感染疾病发病模式方面,潜在类别分析共识别 4 种症状模式,包括多样症状组 39 例(11.41%)、全身症状组 124 例(15.21%)、鼻咽症状组 282 例(34.60%)和轻微症状组 316 例(38.77%)。多因素 Logistic 回归分析显示:相较于轻微症状组,鼻咽症状组出现无处方购买抗生素行为的概率更高(OR=1.538,P<0.05),结果在调整知识与人口学变量后仍显著。除个体疾病症状潜在模式外,年龄和医保类型也对公众无处方抗生素购药行为有显著影响(P<0.05)。抗生素使用知识水平对抗生素自我药疗行为有显著影响(OR=0.869,P<0.05),对公众无处方抗生素购药行为也有显著影响(OR=1.155,P<0.05)。结论 公众上呼吸道感染症状存在 4 种潜在模式,疾病病症模式显著影响公众抗生素的合理使用,应着重关注出现鼻咽症状患者的抗生素不合理使用行为。

  • Influence Factors Research on Health Information Source Selection of Individuals Based on Grounded Theory

    Subjects: Library Science,Information Science >> Library Science submitted time 2023-08-27 Cooperative journals: 《图书情报工作》

    Abstract: [Purpose/significance] To investigate and analyze the influencing factors of individuals' health information source selection, helps to provide targeted basis for the construction of medical health information resources in China. It also helps to provide efficient service for the public health information acquisition. [Method/process] This study applied grounded theory to analyze the interview texts of 38 individuals' health information source selection behavior, including four stages: open coding, axis coding, selective coding and theoretical model construction. [Result/conclusion] The results indicate that the influence factors of health information source selection of individuals are related to individual conditions-motivation factors, perceived quality factors, relationship and structure factors and information source operation level. Finally, a theoretical framework of influence factors of individual's health information source selection is constructed.

  • Sentiment Analysis and Ideological Guidance of Key Nodes in Micro-blog Public Opinion

    Subjects: Library Science,Information Science >> Library Science submitted time 2023-07-26 Cooperative journals: 《图书情报工作》

    Abstract: [Purpose/significance] In order to prevent the outbreak of micro-blog false public opinion to the serious consequences of society, the paper categorized the key nodes in micro-blog, to stop the nodes that maliciously incite the masses' emotions in time, and prevent more micro-blog users from being misled, and guide the micro-blog users by different ways of thinking. So as to better purify the micro-blog public opinion environment. [Method/process] The paper used super network and dynamic network analysis method to identify key nodes. Through analyzing their sentiment tendency, different leading strategies were finally provided. [Result/conclusion] There are five kinds of key nodes in the life cycle of micro-blog public opinion. Ideological guidance can be divided into intelligent guidance and wisdom guidance.

  • 集体仪式促进群体情绪感染的机制

    Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《心理科学进展》

    Abstract: Recently, group emotional contagion has attracted much interest among the scholars of emotional contagion, focusing on the interactive process of emotional contagion among group members. It contains not only direct emotional contagion between two individual, but also the process of group identity, common behavior, collective rules. In addition to inter-individual emotional contagion, group emotional contagion involves two unique emotional outcomes—"emotion cycles" and "collective effervescence". To clarify the occurrence and enhancement process of group emotional contagion, this review associates the three elements of collective ritual (i.e., synchronized actions, shared attention, and shared meaning) and group emotional contagion. Then, the potential mechanisms of collective ritual on group emotional contagion is summarized. First, redundant, repetitive and synchronized actions, as well as shared attention and meaning in collective rituals can trigger the processes related to self-representation. On the one hand, the "self-referential effect" pushes individuals to project personal characteristics into the group, leading to "self-anchoring". On the other hand, collective rituals are characterized by ambiguous causality, but with symbolized social norms embodied. During the process of collective rituals, individuals tend to rely on symbolized social norms to represent themselves, and thus the self-stereotype occurs. As a result, the group identities based on self-anchoring and self-stereotyping is facilitated. Second, strong sense of belonging to the group promotes integrated identity, thereby blurring the boundaries between the individual self and the social self. Highly integrated individuals will experience a transformation of self-representation, from the individual self to the relational self or the collective self (emphasizing group identity), so that an individual will be more closely connected with the group. The group identity generated by collective rituals leads individuals to regard emotion senders as a part of the group and more likely to interpret emotional signals as positive, leading to a larger possibility of emotional mimicry in this context. Emotional imitation under collective ritual produces an emotional experience based on identity, which ultimately enables group emotion to spread on a larger scale. In conclusion, collective rituals enhance group identity through self-stereotyping and self-anchoring. Integrated identity basing on group identity makes individuals pay more attention to group identity, which further leads individuals to transform the individual self into social self and more prone to accepting the group's opinions and emotions. Future studies should further investigate the influencing factors of group emotional contagion and enrich its measurement methods.

  • 部件启动范式下可成字部件的位置效应

    Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-27 Cooperative journals: 《心理学报》

    Abstract: Several components in phonogram characters, such as ‘女’, ‘口’ and ‘马’, can be phonetic radical in the phonetic components’ location or semantic radical in the semantic components’ location. We call these components Chinese wordable components (or Chinese wordable radical), and such components must be a single Chinese character. The location and function of Chinese wordable components vary in Chinese characters. In theory, each wordable components can appear in different parts of Chinese characters. However, the same component appears in different locations of Chinese characters with different characterisation characteristics because of the assumption that the location of components follows orthographic rules, and the frequency of the components’ location is different. However, previous studies have failed to distinguish between components’ location and the frequency of components in various locations and did not explore the effects of wordable components in different locations.This study used the component priming paradigm, which can effectively explore the effect of components’ location on the cognition of Chinese characters. With regard to components that can appear in different locations of Chinese characters, this study investigated the roles of different parts in Chinese character recognition by matching the usage frequency of Chinese characters (all high-frequency characters), stroke numbers and other factors in the component priming paradigm. Experiment 1 adopted the component priming paradigm to investigate the function of wordable components in different locations in Chinese character recognition. The priming stimuli were wordable components of three locations (primary semantic radical, secondary semantic radical and phonetic radical). The target stimuli were Chinese characters that contained these wordable components in three locations. Subjects were asked to identify the true and false characters of the target Chinese characters. Experiment 2 adopted component priming and visual search paradigms to investigate the function of wordable components in different locations. The priming stimuli were similar to those in Experiment 1. The target stimuli were square pictures that contained four Chinese characters. Subjects were asked to determine the presence of true and false characters in the picture, and eye movement data were recorded.The following points were gathered from the results. Firstly, the priming effect of the wordable component in the phonetic radical’s location was stronger than that in the semantic radical’s location. Secondly, when the wordable components were applied as semantic radical, they only appeared in the primary semantic radical’s location rather than in the secondary semantic radical’s location. Lastly, the wordable components in the phonetic radical’s location promoted not only the cognition of Chinese characters containing the phonetic radical’s location components but also the cognition of Chinese characters containing the primary semantic radical’s location components. However, they hindered the cognition of Chinese characters containing the secondary semantic radical’s location components. When priming components appeared in the secondary semantic radical’s location, they had no effect on the Chinese characters containing related components.The study showed that in Chinese character cognition, the effect of component location includes the dual effect of the components’ location and the frequency of the components’ location.

  • 基于客体的一致性效应的产生机制

    Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-27 Cooperative journals: 《心理学报》

    Abstract: The object-based Correspondence effect (also called object-based Simon effect), is a special spatial Correspondence effect, which refers to the phenomenon that responses are faster and more accurate when a handle of the graspable object and the response position or the responding hand are consistent than inconsistent. Tucker and Ellis (1998) first found the object-based Correspondence effect, and attributed the effect to the functional affordance of handles. In other words, when participants watch the graspable object, they automatically activate the tendency to grasp the handle of the object with their corresponding hands. Therefore, when the responding hand which is automatically activated by the handle is consistent that required by the task, responses are faster. In addition to the functional affordance, many researchers have also used the spatial position coding account to explain this effect. The account held the view that the generation of the object-based Correspondence effect was related to the position of the asymmetric handle of the stimuli, which automatically activated the response of the ipsilateral position, leading to the object-based Correspondence effect (Cho & Proctor, 2010). It's uncertain that the generation of object-based Correspondence effect is due to affordance coding or spatial coding hypothesis. In the present study, three experiments were conducted to investigate the generation mechanism of the object-based Correspondence effect. The stimulus materials were the silhouettes and photographs of the frying pans. In Experiment 1 the frying pan was located at the center of the screen, participants were asked to judge the stimulus to be upright or inverted, and responded with the responding hand. The aim of it was to examine whether the silhouettes and photographs of the frying pan would exist the object-based Correspondence effect without significant spatial position. In Experiment 2, the base of the frying pan was placed at the center of the screen, which made the left and right position of the handle more significant, and continue to examine whether the object-based Correspondence effect would appear when there existed the significant spatial coding. In Experiment 3, a crossed-hand response paradigm was adopted to separate response position from responding hand coding, in other words, participants pressed the right key with the left hand and the left key with the right hand, and to further explore the generation mechanism of the object-based Correspondence effect. The results suggested that there existed the object-based Correspondence effect in Experiment 1 when spatial location of the stimulus was not significant for silhouette stimuli, but not photograph stimuli. In Experiment 2 when the spatial position of the stimuli was more significant, silhouette and photograph stimuli both showed the Correspondence effect and the effect size was similar. The RT combined analysis of Experiment 1 and 2 suggested that the Correspondence effect size of Experimental 2 was larger than Experiment 1 for silhouette stimuli, and similar for photograph stimuli. In Experiment 3 when the hands were crossed there was Correspondence effect between the handle and the response position for both silhouette and photograph stimuli, but not the Correspondence effect between the handle and the responding hand. The combined analysis with the Experiment 2 suggested that the effect size of Experiment 3 was smaller than Experiment 2 for both silhouette and photograph stimuli. Based on these results, it is concluded that the spatial coding hypothesis plays an important role in the generation of the object-based Correspondence effect during a two key-pressing selection task, the affordance coding or other explanations are much smaller than that.

  • 青少年心理韧性与恶意创造性行为倾向的关系

    Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-27 Cooperative journals: 《心理学报》

    Abstract: Malevolent creativity is distinguished from general creativity due to its “harmfulness”. It is known that negative personality traits and threatening social situations may promote malevolent creativity via strengthening malevolence. So it seems reasonable to speculate the inhibitory role of positive personality traits (e.g., resilience) on the malevolence in malevolent creativity. However, it has been also evident that resilience is positively correlated with creativity itself. Thus, the two roles of resilience seem to be contradictory when malevolence and creativity are linked together. As a result, it is unclear that what the dominant role of resilience in malevolent creativity is. To tackle this issue, two studies were conducted with the hypothesis that high resilience may predict less malevolent creativity via weakening the malevolence. A moderated mediation model was further proposed to investigate the roles of coping style and stress on the relationship of adolescents’ resilience and their malevolent creative behaviors. Study 1 aimed to explore whether resilience predicts malevolent creativity in a positive or negative direction and whether coping style mediates the influence of resilience on malevolent creativity. A sample of 370 teenagers in study 1 completed the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale (CDRS), Malevolent Creativity Behavior Scale (MCBS), Simplified Coping Style Questionnaire, and Runco Ideational Behavior Scale (RIBS). Study 2 aimed to investigate the moderating role of stress in the mediation process of coping style on the relationship of resilience and malevolent creativity. Another sample of 244 teenagers was recruited in study 2 to induce their acute stress using the Trier Social Stress Test before completing the above questionnaires. The results showed that: 1) the resilience scores of participants were negatively correlated with their malevolent creativity behavior scores; 2) Coping style played a complete mediating role in the relationship between resilience and malevolent creativity; 3) The mediating effect of coping style was moderated by stress where stressful situation weakened the inhibitory effect of positive coping styles on malevolent creativity. These results suggested that the positive quality of resilience can inhibit the harmfulness of malevolent creativity, but stressful situations can reduce the inhibitory effect of resilience. It shed light that cultivating the resilience of young people will resist the adverse effects of stressful situations, and it is necessary to guide the development of their creative ability.

  • WHO and 25 countries / regions ' national action plans for dementia and its enlightenment to China

    Subjects: Medicine, Pharmacy >> Clinical Medicine submitted time 2022-07-20 Cooperative journals: 《中国全科医学》

    Abstract: Dementia is a major public health challenge posed by aging ofpopulation. This papersystematically elaborated thebackground and action area ofthe World Health Organization (WHO) "Global action planonthe public health response to dementia2017-2025 ",reviewed25countries/regions coping with dementiapriorities of national action plan and specific measuressince 2009,explored the enlightenment of international experience responseto dementia on the prevention and treatment of dementia in China. The WHO global action plan includes seven priority action areas: dementia as apublic health priority,dementia awarenessand friendliness, risk reduction, diagnosis, treatment, care and support, support forcarers, construction of information systems, and research and innovation. Accordingly, 25 countries (regions) have deployed priority action areas from the aspects of prevention, intervention, research, support, implementation, legislation and evaluation. According to the seven priority areas proposed by WHO, this paper proposes,China should focus on developing thesepriorities areas when formulating the Chinesenational action plan for dementia,and fully consider the successful experience of WHO member states in early screening of high-risk groups,reducing risk factors,formulating long-term care insurance,creating a friendly social atmosphere,building a national monitoring systemandsoon.

  • 鹧鸪花中一个新的木脂素

    Subjects: Biology >> Botany >> Applied botany submitted time 2022-07-05 Cooperative journals: 《广西植物》

    Abstract: To study the chemical constituents from the branches and leaves of Trichilia connaroides, silica gel, MCI, C18, Sephadex LH-20 and HPLC were applied for the isolation and purification of the constituents. The structures were identified by physicochemical property and spectrum analysis. The results were as follow: (1) Six compounds were obtained from methanol extract of T. connaroides, their structures were identified as Trichiconnarone A (1), 3β, 21-dihydroxy-24-methylenecycloartane (2), 3-Oxo-threo-23, 24, 25-trihydroxytirucall-7-ene (3), 16-dehydeoxy-23β-hydroxyliasenin F (4), ergost-5, 24(28)-diene-3β, 23S-diol (5), 7α-hydrositosteol (6). (2) Compounds 1 is new lignans, 2-4 are triterpenoids, 5 and 6 steroids, and 2-5 were isolated from this plant for the first time. This study provided scientific basis for therational development and utilization of T. connaroides.

  • The mechanism of collective ritual promoting group emotional contagion

    Subjects: Psychology >> Cognitive Psychology Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2022-02-25

    Abstract:

    "

    [Objective] To better understand the occurrence and enhancement mechanism of group emotional contagion, this review analyzed the relationship between the three elements of collective ritual, namely synchronous behavior, shared attention and shared meaning, and group emotional contagion.

    [Conclusions] Collective ritual enhanced group identity and further lead to individual transformation of self-representation. Finally, it enhanced the group emotional contagion.

    [Limitations]Future research should further investigate the influencing factors of group emotional contagion and enrich its measurement methods.

    "

  • The relationship of adolescents’ resilience and their malevolent creative behaviors

    Subjects: Psychology >> Developmental Psychology submitted time 2021-10-08

    Abstract: Malevolent creativity is distinguished from general creativity due to its “harmfulness”. It is known that negative personality traits and threatening social situations may promote malevolent creativity via strengthening malevolence. So it seems reasonable to speculate the inhibitory role of positive personality traits (e.g., resilience) on the malevolence in malevolent creativity. However, it has been also evident that resilience is positively correlated with creativity itself. Thus, the two roles of resilience seem to be contradictory when malevolence and creativity are linked together. As a result, it is unclear that what the dominant role of resilience in malevolent creativity is. To tackle this issue, two studies were conducted with the hypothesis that high resilience may predict less malevolent creativity via weakening the malevolence. A moderated mediation model was further proposed to investigate the roles of coping style and stress on the relationship of adolescents’ resilience and their malevolent creative behaviors. Study 1 aimed to explore whether resilience predicts malevolent creativity in a positive or negative direction and whether coping style mediates the influence of resilience on malevolent creativity. A sample of 370 teenagers in study 1 completed the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale (CDRS), Malevolent Creativity Behavior Scale (MCBS), Simplified Coping Style Questionnaire, and Runco Ideational Behavior Scale (RIBS). Study 2 aimed to investigate the moderating role of stress in the mediation process of coping style on the relationship of resilience and malevolent creativity. Another sample of 244 teenagers was recruited in study 2 to induce their acute stress using the Trier Social Stress Test before completing the above questionnaires. The results showed that: 1) the resilience scores of participants were negatively correlated with their malevolent creativity behavior scores; 2) Coping style played a complete mediating role in the relationship between resilience and malevolent creativity; 3) The mediating effect of coping style was moderated by stress where stressful situation weakened the inhibitory effect of positive coping styles on malevolent creativity. These results suggested that the positive quality of resilience can inhibit the harmfulness of malevolent creativity, but stressful situations can reduce the inhibitory effect of resilience. It shed light that cultivating the resilience of young people will resist the adverse effects of stressful situations, and it is necessary to guide the development of their creative ability. " " "

  • 基于最优训练期的PP 与MOS 的风电功率趋势预报对比

    Subjects: Geosciences >> Geography submitted time 2021-06-17 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区地理》

    Abstract: 利用某一风电场区域内33台风机观测资料以及欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的100 m 高度风速预报产品,引进最优训练期方案,通过一元线性回归方法先对模式的100 m高度风速预报进行订正,再分别采用完全预报方法(PP法)和模式输出统计预报方法(MOS法)进行风电功率预报的对比研究。结果表明:ECMWF的100 m高度风速预报值与风机轮毂高度处风速观测值之间的偏差并不大,订正后的预报误差进一步减小。将订正后的风速预报代入PP法和MOS法建立的风电功率预报方程,可以显著减小PP法的预报误差,但是并没有改进MOS法的预报结果。与利用风速预报订正产品进行风电功率预报的PP法相比,MOS法可以省去风速预报的订正环节而略胜一筹,简化了业务流程。这2种方法计算的33台风机站3~72 h预报的均方根误差和平均绝对误差分别在17%~25%和11%~18%之间,具有业务应用价值。

  • 风电场风速规律分析及风电功率预报方法研究

    Subjects: Geosciences >> Geography submitted time 2021-01-07 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区地理》

    Abstract: 利用陕西省某一风电场区域内的观测资料,分析了该风电场的风速规律,并引入最优训练 期方案,研究利用线性回归方法建立风电功率预报模型的可行性。结果表明:该风电场区域,不同 高度的风速及其高度间的风速差异均表现出最大值出现在夜间,最小值出现在白天,从低层到高 层的风速日变化趋势一致的特征。一日中,风速与风电功率在 09:00 ~ 17:00 时段的相关系数明显小于其它时段。按照风速是否大于 5 m·s-1 将训练期观测样本分为 2 组,可以明显改善风速与风电 功率的回归关系。以风机轮毂高度处的风速作为预报因子,并引入风电功率与风速之间相关系数 的日变化规律、以及不同风速量级下风速与风电功率之间回归关系的差异性,采用最优训练期方 案和一元线性回归方法建立的风电功率预报方程,具有预报误差小和最优训练期短的特点,满足 实际业务需求。

  • 基于MODIS和TRMM数据的黄土高原 农业干旱监测

    Subjects: Geosciences >> Geography submitted time 2019-01-11 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区地理》

    Abstract:农业干旱对农业生产影响最为严重,基于站点观测数据的干旱指数不能准确监测区域尺度的农业干旱特征。因此,本文利用2003—2010年MODIS地表温度(LST)、植被指数(NDVI)和TRMM降水(3B43)数据以及1960—2015年黄土高原地区及周边92个气象站点的月均温和月降水量数据,构建了综合遥感干旱监测模型规模干旱条件指数(Scale Drought Condition Index,SDCI),对黄土高原地区农用地生长季(4~10月)旱情的时空分布特征进行研究,结果表明:黄土高原地区农用地生长季多年平均干旱状态为中度干旱,干旱程度在空间上表现为西北部较严重,东南部较轻。2003—2010年黄土高原地区旱情年际变化呈缓慢加重趋势,2003—2007年旱情持续加重,2007—2009旱情缓慢减轻,2009—2010年旱情又加重。黄土高原地区旱情年内变化表现4-8月持续减轻,8-10月持续加重,干旱程度具体表现为4月呈严重干旱,5月、6月和10月呈中度干旱,7月、8月和9月呈轻度干旱。研究表明利用多源遥感数据构建的具有适当权重的SDCI可以有效监测黄土高原地区作物生长季的干旱状况。

  • ECMWF高分辨率模式对陕西2017年7月 高温预报的检验及订正

    Subjects: Geosciences >> Geography submitted time 2019-01-11 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区地理》

    Abstract:2017年7月陕西累计出现26 d日最高气温≥35℃的高温天气,其中14 d日最高气温突破40℃,7月7~14日和17~27日出现2次区域性持续高温天气。利用陕西99个国家站的最高气温逐时观测和ECMWF高分辨率模式的定时最高气温预报资料,检验ECMWF高分辨率模式对2017年7月陕西极端高温天气的预报能力,以及一元线性回归方法对气温预报的订正能力。结果表明,144 h之前模式较好地预报出了陕西2次区域性持续高温天气,但是高温日数的预报值在陕西大部分地区较观测值偏少,漏报了陕南大部分地区的高温日,与14:00~17:00时段最高气温的预报值在陕西大部分地区较观测值偏低,其中陕南地区的预报平均绝对误差明显大于其它地区有关。一元线性回归方法对168 h之前的最高气温预报为正订正效果,订正后陕西大部分地区最高气温的预报准确率上升,平均绝对误差减小,日最高气温≥35℃或≥40℃的高温预报较订正前更接近实况。