Subjects: Geosciences >> Space Physics submitted time 2017-01-22
Abstract： Solar proton event forecast is very important to guarantee the security of spacecrafts and astronauts. According to the short to medium term space mission, the greater than 10 MeV, 30 MeV and 60 MeV solar proton event fluences are statistically analyzed. It is found that the probability distributions of solar proton event fluences basically satisfy the log-normal distributions, and their expectations and averages are logarithmic functions of the time periods. Based on these, a short to medium term forecast model of solar proton event fluences is built, which can forecast the greater than 10 MeV, 30 MeV and 60 MeV solar proton event fluences with some given confidence levels for 1 to 365 days. So, this model is very helpful to safely carry out the space mission with less than 1 year mission period.
Peer Review Status:
Awaiting Review
Subjects: Geosciences >> Space Physics submitted time 2016-04-22
Abstract： Forecasting the solar proton event fluence is very important to guarantee the safety of spacecrafts and astronauts.Within various periods less than 1 year,the occurrence probabilities of the solar proton events and their fluences were analyzed for solar active years and solar quiet years, respectively.It is found that the probability distributions of solar proton event fluence basically satisfy the log-normal distributions.Based on this,solar proton event fluence can be forecasted with some given confidence levels for different duration space missions ranging from 1 day to 365 days.
Peer Review Status:Awaiting Review
Hits
Hits
Downloads
Comment