Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： Big data is the primary engine for advancing the development of the digital economy, and market-based data allocation is a crucial method for promoting the development of China’s digital economy. However, the current issues of “unclear ownership”, “difficult pricing”, and “imperfect transaction mechanisms” have severely constrained the market-based allocation of data. The study begins with a discussion of the dilemma of data rights delimitation, pricing, and trading. Then review the strategic initiative of international data market construction and the development of China’s data trading market. Finally, based on the practice of China’s big data market construction, the study proposes some recommendations for constructing a high-level data element market. It is expected that the publication of this research would attract more scholars to investigate the market-based data allocation from different perspectives.
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： In recent years, the probability and frequency of international major emergencies are on the rise, which have threatened the global food security. The study decomposes the food supply chain into production section, consumption section, and circulation section; and then analyzes the risks of food security in each section when facing the major emergencies. In the production section, major emergencies restrict the inputs of labor and agricultural production materials, limiting food supply directly. In the consumption section, major emergencies usually increase the food price and decrease the resident income, and thus, decline the purchasing power of food and exacerbate the food crisis. In the circulation section, major emergencies may lead to the block of domestic food transportation and the interruption of international trade, which mismatches the food production and food consumption. In addition, the study puts forward that China’s high grain self-sufficiency rate not only ensures Chinese food security, but also contributes to the global food security. The suggestions are proposed in the end to Chinese and global food security, respectively.
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： Food security is crucial to national security. Thus, it is an urgent task to figure out the potential risks that threaten China’s food security during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and how to cope with those risks. This paper provides an outlook for the development of China’s food production during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and then points out the potential risks faced by food production. The paper demonstrates that China’s food production will achieve a steady development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and the grain output will reach more than 690 Mt by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The paper argues that the main potential risks faced by food production during the 14th Five-Year Plan period include the increasing intensive constraints on natural and labor resources, the slow development of the seed industry, the low degree of scale and mechanization, the over-concentration phenomenon, and the frequent occurrence of major events. In the end, corresponding suggestions are proposed corresponding to the above risks.
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： Faced with the complex domestic and international environment, the Chinese government took various measures to coordinate epidemic control with economic and social development, earning recovered growth of the economy in 2021. In 2022, China's economic development will be facing greater uncertainty. This study systematically analyzes and forecasts the development trend and regularity of China's medium and long-term economic growth rate. It is expected that the medium and long-term economic growth rate of China will show a downward trend in a wave shape. Based on input-output technology, econometrics, prosperity analysis, expert analysis, and scenario analysis, a systematic integrated factor prediction approach on annual GDP growth is proposed. Based on the review and analysis of China's economic development in 2021, as well as the current domestic and international situation, China's economic growth rate is predicted to revert to normal level in 2022, with an annual growth rate of about 5.5%. The policy suggestions are further proposed based on the analysis, including implementing science-based measures in epidemic prevention and control, strengthening the cross-cycle policy adjustment, boosting consumption more vigorously, achieving the goal of "double carbon" scientifically and flexibly, and accelerating the development of digital economy and industrial digitization.
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract：以 ChatGPT及其大语言模型为代表的人工智能将对经济学研究范式产生深远影响。目前，经济学实证研究一般使用参数维数较少、经济可解释性较强的小模型。然而，经济金融系统是一个超高维动态复杂系统，受多种因素的影响，且这些因素之间的关系呈现非线性与时变性特征，小模型无法刻画其本质规律。大模型可有效减少系统偏差，更好刻画复杂经济系统的特征与运行规律；而海量数据的使用可避免模型过度拟合，使大模型具有较好的泛化能力即样本外预测能力。为支持经济学及社会科学其他领域的大模型的估计、推断与预测，需要利用人工智能技术整合各种异构、异源、异频数据，构建大规模计量经济学数据库，并加强大算力等信息技术基础设施建设。目前，ChatGPT 及大模型等前沿人工智能技术仍存在局限性，如：无法像人类一样进行批判性思考或想象，只有预测能力；基于大数据的人工智能因果推断本质上是一种统计关系推断，需要引入经济理论或实验方法帮助识别真正的因果关系；人工智能技术不能改变经济学实证研究从样本推断总体性质的本质；同时，由于互联网大数据存在大量虚假信息或样本选择偏差等问题，基于人工智能所获得的结论的可靠性需要验证。
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： China’s economic growth slowed down in 2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the corresponding measures. There are great uncertainties in China’s economic development in 2023. It is expected that China’s medium and long-term economic growth rate will show a wavy downward trend. Based on input-output technology, econometrics, prosperity analysis, expert analysis, and scenario analysis, this study proposes a systematic integrated factor prediction approach on annual GDP growth. Through analysis of China’s economic growth in 2022 and the current situation worldwide, China’s economic growth rate is predicted to be about 6.0% in 2023, reverting to the normal level. The policy recommendations are further put forward based on the analysis, including strengthening the adjustment of macro-policy, implementing proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, boosting domestic consumption, increasing employment and promoting investment, striving to stabilize the macro-economic market, preventing and defusing risks in major fields, and leveraging China’s advantages in the global industrial chain.
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： Nowadays, with the vigorous rise of a new round of scientific and technological revolution around the world, emerging disciplines continue to spring up, science and technology develop rapidly and show the characteristics of intersection and fusion. Meanwhile, complex models appear in the field of scientific research, and talents play an increasingly prominent role in the process of scientific and technological innovation. In this context, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) is facing a new development opportunity and challenge. It is increasingly significant for how to optimize funding policies, strengthen basic research, enhance talent support for basic research, and build an effective mechanism to condense the scientific problems of bottleneck technology. Focusing on the funding system and management mode of NSFC, we analyze the funding structure and strategies of various international funding agencies in this study. We summarize some meaningful experience and provide feasible suggestions for the optimization of the funding policy for the future development of NSFC. It is helpful for the high-quality development of basic research and the enhancement of China's innovation ability.
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： With the impact of COVID-19, the global market has greatly enhanced the recognition of sustainable development. Economies along the Belt and Road Initiative (herein after referred as Belt & Road countries and regions) are facing severe challenges of common ecological environment and climate change. Based on the two-way fixed effect panel model and interregional input-output model,this study puts forward a measurement model of the impact of China’s outward direct investment on carbon emissions of Belt & Road countries and regions. The results show that China has played a positive role in the green development of Belt & Road countries and regions, leading the green investment of Belt & Road countries and regions. Based on the results and the current situation of China’s outward direct investment, four policy suggestions are proposed, namely, carrying out low-carbon technology transformation in crucial industries, establishing a coherent green development policy, developing multilateral green cooperation, and concentrating on the development of climate finance.
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： This study analyzes the situation of China’s foreign trade from January to November in 2020, and then three forecasting scenarios are constructed based on four aspects, including China’s economic growth, the international demand, Sino-US trade friction, and the development of the COVID-19. Under these scenarios, a new decomposition and composition methodology is proposed to forecast 2021 China’s foreign trade, by integrating the econometric models, artificial intelligence methods, and the system analysis method. In 2021, under the baseline scenario that the COVID-19 pandemic will be under certain control, the global economy exhibits slow recovery and China’s economy grows steadily, the total exports and imports in 2021 are expected to be around 4.9 trillion US dollars with a 5.7 percent growth rate year-on-year. Exports are expected to be around 2.7 trillion US dollars with a 6.2 percent growth rate year-on-year, and imports are expected to be around 2.2 trillion US dollars with a 4.9 percent year-on-year growth rate. The trade surplus is about 576.6 billion US dollars. Under optimistic scenario in 2021, China’s export and import growth rates are expected to increase by 3.0 and 3.3 percentage points relative to the baseline scenario, respectively. Under pessimistic scenario in 2021, China’s export and import growth rates are expected to decrease by 2.9 and 3.2 percentage points relative to the baseline scenario, respectively.
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： Under the joint impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and the complex international situation, the future direction of China’s economic development has attracted much attention. This study systematically analyzes and forecasts the development trend and regularity of China’s medium and long-term economic growth rate. It is expected that the medium and long-term economic growth rate of China will show a downward trend in a wave shape. Based on the systematic integrated prediction approach on annual GDP growth proposed by our team, this study reviews China’s economic development in 2020 and forecasts China’s economic growth rate in 2021. It is expected that China’s economy will achieve a restorative growth with an annual growth rate of about 8.5% in 2021. The policy suggestions are further proposed based on the analysis, including promoting domestic consumption, stabilizing economic growth and development, building a science and technology innovation-oriented country, as well as accelerating the transformation of industrial structure.
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has severely impacted China’s production and supply in the short term, and increased the risk of accelerated outward relocation of domestic industry chain. Based on the measuring of China’s production and export supply gaps caused by COVID-19, and key position of China in global production network and the Asian production chain, this article analyzed the COVID-19 shock on the global production chains and the risk of accelerated China’s industrial outflow. The results show that the output gaps caused by the COVID-19 will have a deep impact on the global production system, and multinational enterprises will speed up the relocation of production chains. Therefore, the increasing risk of industrial outflow should be concerned. Finally, suggestions are put forward to efforts in the COVID-19 control, coordination on economics, and the relocation of production chains.
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