Subjects: Mathematics >> Computational Mathematics. submitted time 2023-02-15 Cooperative journals: 《桂林电子科技大学学报》
Abstract： The aim of this paper is to estimate the risk of Zika and dengue fever (DEN)infection that imports from Asia and
causes local outbreaks. Based on the oversea epidemic data and the floating population between 2015 and 2017, an input
model was built to estimate the number of imported cases, and the local epidemic transmission probability and basic regeneration
number were calculated via the branching process under different temperatures and herd immunity levels. The imported
cases of Zika in China mainly came from Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, with the predicted number of cases as 7.0
(95% CI:6.5-7.5), 2.0 (95% CI:1.8-2.2) and 1.0 (95% CI:0.9-1.1). The imported DEN cases were mainly from Thailand,
Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, India and Korea, the predicted number of cases as 700.0
(95%CI:679.8-720.2), 654.1 (95%CI:641.8-666.2), 376.3 (95% CI:368.2-384.1), 277.1 (95% CI:268.6-285.3),
241.20 (95% CI:233.6-248.8), 67.03 (95% CI:59.6-74.5), 9.1 (95% CI:6.7-11.3) and 3.0 (95% CI:1.9-4.1). The
optimum temperature for Zika and DEN transmission is around 28.9 ℃, in which the risk probability of local transmission is
24.4% and 99.9%, respectively. When the human herd immunity level is 0, 0.2 and 0.6, the basic reproduction numbers
of Zika and DEN are 8.1, 6.7, 3.2 and 3.2, 2.7, 1.3, respectively. The imported cases mainly come from South Asia.
South-central and south-eastern China are top-risk areas for local transmission, especially in June-August. The infection in
Singapore is more likely to cause Zika outbreak in China, while the infection in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore
are the biggest cause of local transmission of DEN in China.
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