Methodological Framework of Identifying Disruptive Technologies on Emerging Stage: Based on Science

Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》

邓建军 刘安蓉 曹晓阳 张科 白光祖 陈悦 高智杰 戴海闻 王伟楠

Abstract： To realize sci-tech self-reliance and self-strengthening at higher levels in China, it is imperative for disruptive technologies to embark on a new journey and open new horizons. The layout and development of disruptive technologies is a complicated and systematic project with strategic significance, in which the identification of disruptive technologies holds the key and serves as the premise. To this end, based on the underlying logic that disruptive technologies are destined to transit from marginalized forces to mainstream power in the future through the process of 10→3→1 constringency, on the understanding that the generation of disruptive technologies is driven by science and technology, the study puts forward the identifying approach of “identifying-selecting-evaluating”, and develops a methodological framework for identifying disruptive technologies based on science with a view to providing reference for the early identification of disruptive technologies.

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