分类： 天文学 >> 天文学 提交时间： 2023-02-19
摘要： The poleward migration of the active regions' magnetic flux on the solar surface plays an important role in the development of the large-scale field development, especially the polar field reversal, which is a key process in the Babcock-Leighton-type solar dynamos. The poleward flux transport is nonuniform, centered around poleward surges as suggested by previous observations. The strong, long-lasting surges are related to activity complexes, and often result in violent polar field reversal. However, the nonuniformity of poleward flux transport has not been evaluated quantitatively. We propose a statistical method to analyze the poleward flux transport during solar cycles 21-24 by considering the frequency distributions of the magnetic field at latitudes of poleward surges occurrence during solar cycles. The nonuniformity is quantified as the kurtosis statistics representing the tailedness of the distributions. We test the method on results of surface flux transport simulations, and apply to WSO, NSO, MWO, and HMI data. We confirm that the poleward surges are of significance during solar cycles 21-24 in general. The kurtosis within a solar cycle is affected by different latitudes of the magnetic field and different data sources. The southern hemisphere of cycle 24 exhibits the largest kurtosis, agreeing the super surge concept from previous work. The significant nonuniformity of poleward flux transport originates from the nonrandomness of active regions, which favors the activity complexes origin of poleward surges.
分类： 天文学 >> 天文学 提交时间： 2023-02-19
摘要： The solar dipole moment at cycle minimum is considered to be the most successful precursor for the amplitude of the subsequent cycle. Numerical simulations of the surface flux transport (SFT) model are widely used to effectively predict the dipole moment at cycle minimum. Recently an algebraic method has been proposed to quickly predict the contribution of an active region (AR) to the axial dipole moment at cycle minimum instead of SFT simulations. However, the method assumes a bipolar magnetic region (BMR) configuration of ARs. Actually most ARs are asymmetric in configuration of opposite polarities, or have more complex configurations. Such ARs evolve significantly differently from that of BMR approximations. We propose a generalized algebraic method to describe the axial dipole contribution of an AR with an arbitrary configuration, and evaluate its effectiveness compared to the BMR-based method. We employ mathematical deductions to obtain the generalized method. We compare the results of the generalized method with SFT simulations of observed ARs, artificially created BMRs, and ARs with more complex configurations. We also compare the results with that from the BMR-based method. The generalized method is equivalent to the SFT model, and precisely predicts the ARs' contributions to the dipole moment. The method has a much higher computational efficiency than SFT simulations. Although the BMR-based method has similar computational efficiency as the generalized method, it is only accurate for symmetric bipolar ARs. The BMR-based method systematically overestimates the dipole contributions of asymmetric bipolar ARs, and randomly miscalculate the contributions of more complex ARs. The generalized method provides a quick and precise quantification of an AR's contribution to the solar cycle evolution, which paves the way for the application into the physics-based solar cycle prediction.
点击量
待评议
点击量
下载量
评论
