Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： Faced with the complex domestic and international environment, the Chinese government took various measures to coordinate epidemic control with economic and social development, earning recovered growth of the economy in 2021. In 2022, China's economic development will be facing greater uncertainty. This study systematically analyzes and forecasts the development trend and regularity of China's medium and long-term economic growth rate. It is expected that the medium and long-term economic growth rate of China will show a downward trend in a wave shape. Based on input-output technology, econometrics, prosperity analysis, expert analysis, and scenario analysis, a systematic integrated factor prediction approach on annual GDP growth is proposed. Based on the review and analysis of China's economic development in 2021, as well as the current domestic and international situation, China's economic growth rate is predicted to revert to normal level in 2022, with an annual growth rate of about 5.5%. The policy suggestions are further proposed based on the analysis, including implementing science-based measures in epidemic prevention and control, strengthening the cross-cycle policy adjustment, boosting consumption more vigorously, achieving the goal of "double carbon" scientifically and flexibly, and accelerating the development of digital economy and industrial digitization.
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： With the impact of COVID-19, the global market has greatly enhanced the recognition of sustainable development. Economies along the Belt and Road Initiative (herein after referred as Belt & Road countries and regions) are facing severe challenges of common ecological environment and climate change. Based on the two-way fixed effect panel model and interregional input-output model,this study puts forward a measurement model of the impact of China’s outward direct investment on carbon emissions of Belt & Road countries and regions. The results show that China has played a positive role in the green development of Belt & Road countries and regions, leading the green investment of Belt & Road countries and regions. Based on the results and the current situation of China’s outward direct investment, four policy suggestions are proposed, namely, carrying out low-carbon technology transformation in crucial industries, establishing a coherent green development policy, developing multilateral green cooperation, and concentrating on the development of climate finance.
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： Under the joint impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and the complex international situation, the future direction of China’s economic development has attracted much attention. This study systematically analyzes and forecasts the development trend and regularity of China’s medium and long-term economic growth rate. It is expected that the medium and long-term economic growth rate of China will show a downward trend in a wave shape. Based on the systematic integrated prediction approach on annual GDP growth proposed by our team, this study reviews China’s economic development in 2020 and forecasts China’s economic growth rate in 2021. It is expected that China’s economy will achieve a restorative growth with an annual growth rate of about 8.5% in 2021. The policy suggestions are further proposed based on the analysis, including promoting domestic consumption, stabilizing economic growth and development, building a science and technology innovation-oriented country, as well as accelerating the transformation of industrial structure.
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