动态视角下的城市道路交通网络失效评价模型

Subjects: Computer Science >> Integration Theory of Computer Science submitted time 2018-05-20 Cooperative journals: 《计算机应用研究》

袁鹏程 林徐勋

Abstract： Based on the reliability theory, the expression of the 'failure---non failure' state of the urban road traffic unit and the traffic network is given after the change law of their states is analyzed; the time distribution of the link unit and the traffic network is analyzed from the observed starting point t0 to the "first failure state". Based on these, the failure probability, average failure time, failure rate and conditional length of failure time of the urban road unit and traffic network are deduced, the method of model calibration is also given in this paper. A road traffic network that composed of five road units in a core city of China is taken by an example, the first failure time of the road units and the traffic network are fitted and checked, the model calculation results are also compared with the actual observation results. The results show that it is better to use logarithmic normal distribution to fit the first failure time, and the calculation results of the model are very close to the actual observation results, which shows that the model has good practicability.

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