Subjects: Geosciences >> Geography submitted time 2024-01-12 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区科学》
Abstract： Understanding the trajectories and driving mechanisms behind land use/land cover (LULC) changes is essential for effective watershed planning and management. This study quantified the net change, exchange, total change, and transfer rate of LULC in the Jinghe River Basin (JRB), China using LULC data from 2000 to 2020. Through trajectory analysis, knowledge maps, chord diagrams, and standard deviation ellipse method, we examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of LULC changes. We further established an index system encompassing natural factors (digital elevation model (DEM), slope, aspect, and curvature), socio-economic factors (gross domestic product (GDP) and population), and accessibility factors (distance from railways, distance from highways, distance from water, and distance from residents) to investigate the driving mechanisms of LULC changes using factor detector and interaction detector in the geographical detector (Geodetector). The key findings indicate that from 2000 to 2020, the JRB experienced significant LULC changes, particularly for farmland, forest, and grassland. During the study period, LULC change trajectories were categorized into stable, early-stage, late-stage, repeated, and continuous change types. Besides the stable change type, the late-stage change type predominated the LULC change trajectories, comprising 83.31% of the total change area. The period 2010–2020 witnessed more active LULC changes compared to the period 2000–2010. The LULC changes exhibited a discrete spatial expansion trend during 2000–2020, predominantly extending from southeast to northwest of the JRB. Influential driving factors on LULC changes included slope, GDP, and distance from highways. The interaction detection results imply either bilinear or nonlinear enhancement for any two driving factors impacting the LULC changes from 2000 to 2020. This comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of LULC changes offers valuable insights for the planning and sustainable management of LULC in the JRB.
Subjects: Geosciences >> Other Disciplines of Geosciences submitted time 2024-02-21 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区科学》
Abstract： Severe soil erosion and drought are the two main factors affecting the ecological security of the Loess Plateau, China. Investigating the influence of drought on soil conservation service is of great importance to regional environmental protection and sustainable development. However, there is little research on the coupling relationship between them. In this study, focusing on the Jinghe River Basin, China as a case study, we conducted a quantitative evaluation on meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts (represented by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI), respectively) using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and quantified the soil conservation service using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) in the historical period (2000–2019) and future period (2026–2060) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We further examined the influence of the three types of drought on soil conservation service at annual and seasonal scales. The NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset was used to predict and model the hydrometeorological elements in the future period under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results showed that in the historical period, annual-scale meteorological drought exhibited the highest intensity, while seasonal-scale drought was generally weakest in autumn and most severe in summer. Drought intensity of all three types of drought will increase over the next 40 years, with a greater increase under the RCP4.5 scenario than under the RCP8.5 scenario. Furthermore, the intra-annual variation in the drought intensity of the three types of drought becomes smaller under the two future scenarios relative to the historical period (2000–2019). Soil conservation service exhibits a distribution pattern characterized by high levels in the southwest and southeast and lower levels in the north, and this pattern has remained consistent both in the historical and future periods. Over the past 20 years, the intra-annual variation indicated peak soil conservation service in summer and lowest level in winter; the total soil conservation of the Jinghe River Basin displayed an upward trend, with the total soil conservation in 2019 being 1.14 times higher than that in 2000. The most substantial impact on soil conservation service arises from annual-scale meteorological drought, which remains consistent both in the historical and future periods. Additionally, at the seasonal scale, meteorological drought exerts the highest influence on soil conservation service in winter and autumn, particularly under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Compared to the historical period, the soil conservation service in the Jinghe River Basin will be significantly more affected by drought in the future period in terms of both the affected area and the magnitude of impact. This study conducted beneficial attempts to evaluate and predict the dynamic characteristics of watershed drought and soil conservation service, as well as the response of soil conservation service to different types of drought. Clarifying the interrelationship between the two is the foundation for achieving sustainable development in a relatively arid and severely eroded area such as the Jinghe River Basin.
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