• A CMIP6-based assessment of regional climate change in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains

    分类: 地球科学 >> 大气科学 提交时间: 2024-02-21 合作期刊: 《干旱区科学》

    摘要: Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes, agricultural production, and human society. Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting. The Chinese Tianshan Mountains (CTM) have a high climate sensitivity, rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate warming. In this study, we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset (1961–2014) and 24 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional scale. Based on this, we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends, dry–wet transitions (based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI)), and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during 1961–2014. We further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms (near-term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and long-term (2081–2100)) relative to the historical period (1961–2014) under four shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014, and will also experience warming in the future (2021–2100). Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble (MME) from the CMIP6 GCMs. The MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008, which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in 1989. The GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the CTM. Warming and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the CTM. By the end of the 21st century, all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry–wet transitions. However, the rise in precipitation fails to counterbalance the drought induced by escalating temperature in the future, so the nature of the drought in the CTM will not change at all. Additionally, the projected summer precipitation shows negative correlation with the radiative forcing. This study holds practical implications for the awareness of climate change and subsequent research in the CTM.

  • A CMIP6-based assessment of regional climate change in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains

    分类: 地球科学 >> 大气科学 提交时间: 2024-02-07 合作期刊: 《干旱区科学》

    摘要: Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes, agricultural production, and human society. Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting. The Chinese Tianshan Mountains (CTM) have a high climate sensitivity, rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate warming. In this study, we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset (1961–2014) and 24 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional scale. Based on this, we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends, dry–wet transitions (based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI)), and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during 1961–2014. We further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms (near-term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and long-term (2081–2100)) relative to the historical period (1961–2014) under four shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014, and will also experience warming in the future (2021–2100). Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble (MME) from the CMIP6 GCMs. The MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008, which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in 1989. The GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the CTM. Warming and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the CTM. By the end of the 21st century, all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry–wet transitions. However, the rise in precipitation fails to counterbalance the drought induced by escalating temperature in the future, so the nature of the drought in the CTM will not change at all. Additionally, the projected summer precipitation shows negative correlation with the radiative forcing. This study holds practical implications for the awareness of climate change and subsequent research in the CTM.

  • Spatial changes and driving factors of lake water quality in Inner Mongolia, China

    分类: 地球科学 >> 地理学 提交时间: 2023-02-15 合作期刊: 《干旱区科学》

    摘要: Lakes play important roles in sustaining the ecosystem and economic development in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China, but the spatial patterns and driving mechanisms of water quality in lakes so far remain unclear. This study aimed to identify the spatial changes in water quality and the driving factors of seven lakes (Juyanhai Lake, Ulansuhai Lake, Hongjiannao Lake, Daihai Lake, Chagannaoer Lake, Hulun Lake, and Wulannuoer Lake) across the longitudinal axis (from the west to the east) of Inner Mongolia. Large-scale research was conducted using the comprehensive trophic level index (TLI (Σ)), multivariate statistics, and spatial analysis methods. The results showed that most lakes in Inner Mongolia were weakly alkaline. Total dissolved solids and salinity of lake water showed obvious zonation characteristics. Nitrogen and phosphorus were identified as the main pollutants in lakes, with high average concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus being of 4.05 and 0.21 mg/L, respectively. The values of TLI (Σ) ranged from 49.14 to 71.77, indicating varying degrees of lake eutrophication, and phosphorus was the main driver of lake eutrophication. The lakes of Inner Mongolia could be categorized into lakes to the west of Daihai Lake and lakes to the east of Daihai Lake in terms of salinity and TLI (Σ). The salinity levels of lakes to the west of Daihai Lake exceeded those of lakes to the east of Daihai Lake, whereas the opposite trend was observed for lake trophic level. The intensity and mode of anthropogenic activities were the driving factors of the spatial patterns of lake water quality. It is recommended to control the impact of anthropogenic activities on the water quality of lakes in Inner Mongolia to improve lake ecological environment. These findings provide a more thorough understanding of the driving mechanism of the spatial patterns of water quality in lakes of Inner Mongolia, which can be used to develop strategies for lake ecosystem protection and water resources management in this region.