甘肃省土地利用转型时空格局演化及多情景模拟 postprint

Abstract: Exploring the transition situation of land use in ecologically significant but underdeveloped areas is crucial for promoting urban-rural integration and achieving regional sustainable development. Using the land use data from five time points in Gansu Province from 2000 to 2020, this study analyzed the quantitative distribution,spatial patterns, and mutual transfer of land use types. The Future Land Use Simulation model was used to simulate the land use transformation under four scenarios of inertia development, urban-rural integration, planning constraints, and ecological restoration in 2035. The study found that: (1) The main land use types in Gansu Province are cultivated land, grassland, and unused land, exhibiting significant regional heterogeneity in spatial distribution. The comprehensive land use dynamics initially increased, then decreased, before increasing again. (2) Under the influence of the continuous promotion of the Western Development Strategy and the policy of returning farmland to forest and grassland, the land use transition in the Gansu Province is mainly manifested in the transfer of cultivated land to grassland and woodland, and the transfer of construction land to cultivated land and grassland. (3)Under the two scenarios of urban-rural integration and planning constraints, the results of land use simulation are reasonable, considering cultivated land protection and regional ecological environment restoration,which can meet the needs of future development. This study provides a valuable reference for land governance and spatial planning in Gansu Province.