塔里木盆地农业光热资源特征及开发潜力分析 postprint

Abstract: Agricultural solar thermal resources are the core advantage in the national strategy of western development of Tarim Basin. However, there has been no comprehensive quantitative assessment of the potential for developing agricultural solar thermal resources in the Tarim Basin. Based on the analysis of the inter-annual trend and spatial pattern characteristics of agricultural solar thermal resources in 42 counties in the Tarim Basin, this study established a comprehensive evaluation index system and used the entropy weight-TOPSIS method and Mann-Kendall trend test to evaluate the potential for developing agricultural solar thermal resources in the Tarim Basin. The results show that: (1) Between 1990 and 2020, the agricultural solar thermal resources in the Tarim Basin, including annual sunshine hours, annual solar radiation, annual active heat accumulation above 10°C, and annual mean temperature, all showed an upward trend, while the number of days with at least 3 hours of effective sunshine and annual evaporation showed a downward trend. (2) There is significant spatial imbalance in agricultural solar thermal resources in the Tarim Basin, and different indicators show different spatial differentiation patterns, forming obvious spatial features of high and low agricultural solar thermal resources aggregation distribution. (3) There is significant spatial difference in the potential for developing agricultural solar thermal resources in the Tarim Basin, with an average score of 0.199 for the potential for developing agricultural solar thermal resources. The highest score of 0.578 belongs to Zhalay County, which is more than 6 times that of Keping County with the lowest score of 0.094. This forms a “multi-core” distribution pattern. The research results can provide realistic reference for the development and utilization of agricultural solar thermal resources in the Tarim Basin, and help improve local resource utilization efficiency.