甘肃省内陆河流域水资源承载能力 postprint

Abstract: As an important passage of the Silk Road, the water resources carrying capacity of the inland river basin is a key factor impacting the sustainable development of society and economy in the Gansu Province. Therefore, by constructing an evaluation index system of“water resources-society- economy- ecology,”based on the CRITIC and the entropy methods for calculating the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index, this study evaluated the carrying capacity of the water resources of the region. The study involved analyzing the coupling and coordination situation of each subsystem and the main obstacle factors affecting the capacity by using the TOPSIS model, the coupling and coordination function model, and the obstacle factors function model, respectively. The results suggested that the water resources and social subsystem development of the water resources capacity in Jiuquan, Jiayuguan, Zhangye, Jinchang, and Wuwei lagged behind the economic and ecological subsystem development of the region from 2011 to 2022. The water resource carrying capacity of the inland river basin was generally in a slow upward trend in the Gansu Province, thus escalating its shortage state to a reasonable level progressively. Additionally, relative to the average relative proximity degree, the water carrying capacity of Jiuquan, Jinchang, and Zhangye is at a shortage level, whereas the water carrying capacity of Jiayuguan and Wuwei is at a reasonable level. The level of coupling coordination of the four subsystems in the five cities was at its primary coordination stage. The key to improving the water resource carrying capacity of the inland river basin in the Gansu Province is to improve the carrying capacity of water resources and social subsystems. The main obstacles to improving the carrying capacity of water resources are the rate of cultivated land, proportion of ecological water use, population density, and Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) from wastewater.