气候变化背景下白皮松在中国潜在适宜分布预测 postprint

Abstract: The study aims to predict the distribution of potential suitable area and the impact of climate change, and to clarify the appropriate distribution range in the future, so as to provide reference for the protection of Pinus bungeana and its utilization in ecological engineering construction. Based on the 83 wild distribution sites of P. bungeana and climate factor data, MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to simulate the potential suitable zone distribution of P. bungeana under present and 3 climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585) (2080-2100, low-level, medium-to-level, and high greenhouse gases emission scenarios) MaxEnt model simulation results of AUC (area value under the subject operating characteristic curve) were greater than 0.973, and the prediction results were highly accurate. Under the present climate conditions, the potential suitable areas of P. bungeana are mainly distributed in Shaanxi Province, southern Shanxi Province, southeastern Gansu Province, northwestern Henan Province, and northwestern Hubei Province, with a total area of about 74.5 × 104 km2, under the background of future climate change, the area of core suitable areas will be reduced to different degrees, and the temperature are the main limiting factor for the distribution of potential growth zones of P. bungeana. Under the low and medium greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the limiting factor for the potential growth zones distribution of P. bungeana is still dominated by temperature. Under the scenario of high greenhouse gas emission, the global temperature increases faster, and rainfall becomes the main limiting factor affecting the distribution of P. bungeana suitable area. The centroid of the suitable area of P. bungeana shifts eastward, especially more sensitive under the high emission concentration of greenhouse gases, and the migration distance is farther. This paper proposes the protection of P. bungeana, and the results provide reference value for ecological engineering construction using P. bungeana.