Potential habitat prediction of Tetraena mongolica and its GAP analysis with nature reserves
摘要: 明晰物种的潜在分布区及其与当前自然保护区的空缺，对于合理高效地开展濒危物种保护具有重要的意义。为了预测四合木（Tetraena mongolica）在当代（2020s）及未来（2060s、2100s）的分布范围，以及自然保护区对四合木的保护现状，以四合木为对象，利用最大熵模型（The maximum entropy model software，MaxEnt）结合23个环境变量预测其在内蒙古自治区西鄂尔多斯与宁夏回族自治区的潜在适生区，并与当前四合木自然保护区进行了保护空缺分析。结果表明：（1）MaxEnt模型的受试者工作特征曲线下的面积为0.977，表明预测结果准确。（2）影响四合木分布的主要环境因子是最湿月降水量，其次是最干月降水量、距道路距离、等温性、最冷季平均温度、坡度。（3）研究区内四合木当前适生面积为4717 km2；2020s2100s四合木潜在分布区退缩，并向西北部偏移。（4）基于保护空缺分析，当前仅有14.88%四合木的适宜生境位于保护区内，大面积的四合木适生区未设立自然保护区，这些地区主要集中在内蒙古乌海市和鄂尔多斯市杭锦旗。研究结果旨在为四合木保护及其自然保护区建设提供科学指导。
Abstract: For efficient conservation of endangered species, it is crucial to clarify the potential distribution of the species and the gap with current nature reserves. To predict the distribution of Tetraena mongolia in the present (the 2020s) and future (2060s, 2100s), and to explore the conservation gap with natural reserves，this study estimated the potential habitat of Tetraena mongolia in the western Ordos of Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, China using the MaxEnt model and conducted a gap analysis between the potential habitat and current Tetraena mongolia nature reserves based on 23 environmental factors. The area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve of the MaxEnt model was 0.977, indicating that the prediction was accurate. The crucial environmental factors affecting the distribution of Tetraena mongolia were precipitation of the wettest month, followed by precipitation of the driest month, distance from the road, isotherm properties, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, and slope. The current suitable area of Tetraena mongolia is 4717 km2 ; the potential distribution area decreased from the 2020s to the 2100s and shifted to the northwest. Presently, only 14.88% of the suitable habitats of Tetraena mongolia are located in protected areas. Large areas of suitable habitats for Tetraena mongolia have not been established as nature reserves, which are mainly concentrated in Wuhai City and Hangjinqi Banner of Ordos City. This study provides scientific guidance for the conservation of Tetraena mongolia and its natural reserve development.
| [V1] | 2023-05-17 19:22:57 | ChinaXiv:202305.00186V1 | 下载全文 |
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