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  • 跨界行为对创造力影响的跨层次双刃剑效应

    分类: 心理学 >> 心理学史 提交时间: 2020-06-28

    摘要: 本文从资源的视角,在团队和个体两个层面探究了跨界行为分别对团队创造力和个体创造力的影响以及中介机制和边界条件。采用多阶段-多来源的方式收集数据。研究结果表明在团队层面上,团队跨界行为会提高团队创造力,但在个体层面上,员工跨界行为通过增加员工的角色压力对个体创造力产生不利影响。角色宽度自我效能感调节了上述关系,相比于角色宽度自我效能感较高的员工,角色宽度自我效能感较低的员工实施了跨界行为后更容易产生角色压力,对个体创造力的负向影响更强

  • 黑河流域绿洲变化的模式与稳定性分析

    分类: 环境科学技术及资源科学技术 >> 环境科学技术基础学科 提交时间: 2020-06-27 合作期刊: 《干旱区研究》

    摘要: 本文旨在探索黑河流域绿洲近55 a的时空变化模式与稳定性。基于1963—2017年的16期多源遥感影像,提取了55 a黑河流域绿洲空间分布信息,使用叠置分析、格网化等方法,分析黑河流域绿洲变化模式与稳定性的时空特征。结果表明:黑河流域绿洲以波动变化模式为主,波动绿洲主要分布在灌溉保证程度差和土壤盐渍化的地区;扩张绿洲呈现早期向内填充、中后期向外扩张的模式;退缩绿洲主要分布在生态脆弱的绿洲边缘。黑河流域绿洲总体上逐渐趋向稳定,下游绿洲稳定性低于中游;中游及下游的金塔、鼎新绿洲波动主要发生在早期,而下游额济纳绿洲的波动主要发生在中期。

  • 不同灌水梯度下沙棘液流特征与环境因子的关系

    分类: 环境科学技术及资源科学技术 >> 环境科学技术基础学科 提交时间: 2020-06-27 合作期刊: 《干旱区研究》

    摘要: 以砒砂岩为母质发育的栗钙土作为供试土壤,沙棘作为供试树种,基于茎热平衡法(SHB)在温室内研究不同灌水梯度下T1(田间持水量θFC25%)、T2(θFC40%)、T3(θFC55%)沙棘液流速率变化特征。采用HOBO小型气象站监测环境因子,研究沙棘液流速率对环境因子的响应关系。结果表明:① 沙棘液流速率除明显的昼夜变化外,还伴有“光合午休”现象,液流变化曲线呈双峰形;② 沙棘液流速率与土壤含水率呈正比,液流速率和日累积量为T1<T2<T3,其中,T2和T3差距较小;③ 沙棘液流速率与光合有效辐射、空气温度呈正相关,与空气湿度呈负相关;不同灌水梯度下液流速率与各环境因子的相关性绝对值表现为T1<T3<T2。回归方程R2表现为T1<T3<T2。T2梯度下沙棘液流速率处于较高水平,对环境因子响应程度最高,温度是影响沙棘液流速率变化的主导因子。

  • 新疆喀什噶尔河流域平原区地下水TDS分布及其成因

    分类: 环境科学技术及资源科学技术 >> 环境科学技术基础学科 提交时间: 2020-06-27 合作期刊: 《干旱区研究》

    摘要: 基于新疆喀什噶尔河流域平原区2014年74组地下水水质检测结果,运用克里格插值法、Gibbs图、离子比值法、矿物饱和指数法,揭示地下水中TDS分布特征及其成因。结果表明:研究区潜水中TDS介于354.80~6505.00 mg·L-1,平均值为1 994.36 mg·L-1,无盐水分布,总体表现为西高东低,水化学类型主要为SO4·Cl-Na·Ca·Mg、HCO3·SO4-Na·Ca·Mg和HCO3·SO4-Ca·Mg;承压水中的TDS普遍较高,介于214.00~14 548.00 mg·L-1,平均值为2 480.30 mg·L-1,其分布特征总体表现为南高北低,水化学类型以SO4·Cl-Na·Ca·Mg、HCO3·SO4-Na·Ca·Mg及SO4-Na·Ca·Mg为主。控制本区地下水TDS的主要机制为自然地理因素、岩石风化作用、蒸发浓缩作用、矿物溶解作用及人类活动。

  • “差点儿VP了”的两种否定形式及其语义指向.doc

    分类: 语言学及应用语言学 >> 语言学及应用语言学 提交时间: 2020-06-26

    摘要: 基于对江蓝生“概念叠加”“构式整合”理论的推导,本文对“差点儿没”各种句式的语义指向形成了一套统一的认识:“差点儿VP了”(以及“差点儿VP”)的否定形式有A式“差点儿没VP了”和B式“差点儿没VP”两种。A式否定是单义句式,应该首先剥离出来。B式否定中,VP为V的句式也是单义句式,也应该剥离出来。剩余的B式否定都是歧义句式,具有B1类和B2类两种语义指向,具体表示哪种语义,由前提条件确定。前提条件分两类:隐性前提和显性前提。隐性前提由常识和语境决定,是句式B首先默认的前提,通常不需要出现在句子表面。显性前提是特殊性前提或无倾向性前提,必须在句子表面出现,才能取代隐形前提的位置。B1类语义前提条件的显性语言形式可表述为“本来应该/~/VP,差点+没VP”;B2类语义前提条件的显性语言形式可表述为“本来不应该/~/VP,差点没+VP”。综合所有这些显性语言形式的前提条件,则可以归结为“能”类和“愿”类两种类型的主观认识与最终事实结果之间的逻辑转折。

  • 基于ASCOM及PLC的随动天文圆顶控制

    分类: 天文学 >> 天文学 提交时间: 2020-06-24 合作期刊: 《天文研究与技术》

    摘要: 四川稻城县无名山址点是云南天文台新近选定的天文台址。为实现在无名山50CM光学望远镜开展远程自动观测试验,需要对圆顶进行远程自动控制驱动开发。圆顶驱动基于ASCOM标准,采用Modbus/TCP协议连接PLC控制器,实现了圆顶的自动控制。重点介绍了圆顶控制原理和实现方法,结果表明,圆顶控制系统具有融合度高、使用方便的特点,满足远程自动观测的需求,对于相似的中小型观测系统具有一定的借鉴意义。

  • 早死早超生: 负折扣的“去牵挂”解释

    分类: 心理学 >> 管理心理学 分类: 心理学 >> 社会心理学 提交时间: 2020-06-23

    摘要: 面对未来的负性事件,折扣理论认为人们应该,实际观察同样发现人们实际会选择延迟负性事件, 如拖欠款、迟交罚款、税款、欠债,而这种延迟无疑会造成个人和社会成本的巨大浪费。然而,同样有研究发现背离了折扣理论预测的结果。本研究提出并探索反转上述偏好的一种可能解释,即“去牵挂”解释。我们设计5个研究既有实验室又有现场研究,结果发现当存在后续牵挂事时,学生被试会偏好早经历负性事件(本研究中即是口语考试),且后续牵挂事件所引起的反刍程度起中介作用。特别需要指出的是,本研究结果表明这种设置后续牵挂事的方法是一种稳定有效的行为助推,容易使潜在的使用者理解这种方法。简言之,在本研究中设置“牵挂事”对“偏好即时负性事件”所起的作用,犹如在罗伯斯山洞实验中设置“组外威胁”对“组内合作”所起的作用。

  • 激光光斑特性测量方法研究

    分类: 天文学 >> 天文学 提交时间: 2020-06-23 合作期刊: 《天文研究与技术》

    摘要: 在卫星激光测距系统中激光光斑特性的好坏关系到测距成功与否,而经望远镜出射后的真实激光光斑特性尤为重要。为了准确掌握经望远镜出射后的激光光斑特性,提出了一种精准测量激光光斑特性的方法。首先将激光照射在一定距离的漫反射屏上,利用CCD相机采集激光光斑的漫反射图像,同时利用安装在漫反射屏上的能量计实时记录光斑相应区域的激光能量,最后结合激光光斑的CCD图像以及光斑相应区域的能量分布,分析计算出激光光斑的相关特性参数。文中详细给出了激光光斑的测量原理、实验方案以及数据处理方法,并通过实测数据精确的计算出了经望远镜出射后的激光光斑半径、发散角、平均能量密度分布等参数。实验结果表明:本测量方法具有测量精度高、响应速度快、操作简单,易于控制等优点,在激光光斑测量方面具有重要的应用前景。

  • 机架模型下指向误差数据的筛选与分析

    分类: 天文学 >> 天文学 提交时间: 2020-06-23 合作期刊: 《天文研究与技术》

    摘要: 对地平式望远镜机架模型拟合的指向误差数据展开分析。介绍了指向误差数据的获取方法。采用最小二乘法求解修正系数,结合方位轴位置和高度轴位置拟合出指向修正量。在显著性水平α=0.05下进行残差分析,剔除偏离过大的点以提高拟合精度。通过计算均方根误差,相关系数,F检验的p值验证了机架模型有效性。本文说明了增加测试数据后,未经残差检验不一定能提高拟合精度;以及分次获取的误差数据可合并处理。将求解的系数写入配置文件,在指向与跟踪过程中根据光栅编码器的反馈值实时修正。

  • Fermi伽玛暴时间分辨谱拐折幂率拟合的模型限制

    分类: 天文学 >> 天文学 提交时间: 2020-06-23 合作期刊: 《天文研究与技术》

    摘要: 我们使用模型SBPL(平滑拐折幂率)、BPL(两段幂率直接连接的折线)和Band去拟合8个Fermi亮暴得到165个最佳模型拟合谱。然后根据这165个谱的能流Fluence得出三个模型拟合数据的范围和一些结论。得到BPL能很好地拟合较暗的暴(Fluence<5"×" 〖"10" 〗^"-5" erg/〖"cm" 〗^"2" ),而较亮的暴用Band(5"×" 〖"10" 〗^"-5" erg/〖"cm" 〗^"2" 展开 -->

  • 基于虚拟天文馆对全天相机姿态的精确测量

    分类: 天文学 >> 天文学 提交时间: 2020-06-23 合作期刊: 《天文研究与技术》

    摘要: 全天相机已广泛地使用在气象、天文等领域. 在监测云量、夜天光、流星等应用中, 均需要准确掌握相机的姿态参数, 特别是在安装和运维中造成的偏差. 本研究旨在开发一套基于虚拟天文馆的像场测量方法, 通过比较参考恒星的虚拟坐标及其像点的实测坐标, 高精度测量相机的姿态参数. 使用中国科学院云南天文台安置于四川无名山观测站的全天相机, 分析于2016至2017年获得的4组全天图像, 采集了容量分别为~10、~50、~200的恒星样本, 通过Stellarium虚拟天文馆获得了恒星的地平坐标, 对全天相机像场的天顶位置、测者子午线方向等基本参数进行了精确的测量. 主要结果为: (1)开发了一种基于虚拟天文馆计算恒星地平坐标功能的测量方法, 使姿态测量建立在容量较大的参考恒星上. 该方法准确度高, 对设备配置的依赖性低, 具有较强的可移植性. (2)采用网格法对图像天顶的定位达到了亚像素的精度, 有望满足高定位精度监测的需要. (3)全天相机姿态精度的首要指标是光轴的竖直性, 光轴偏离天顶会对投影的轴对称性造成不可忽略的影响. (4)维护作业对圆形像场几何参数的改变甚微, 但可能会改变指向和旋转角, 并需要重新测量. (5)生成了符合制图惯例的可视化产品, 为监测数据的深入分析奠定了基础.

  • 抑郁个体的视知觉加工异常

    分类: 心理学 >> 认知心理学 提交时间: 2020-06-22

    摘要: 抑郁作为一种神经心理障碍,一般表现为情绪失调,但研究表明,抑郁个体的视知觉加工也发生了改变。综述从视觉客体特征(如对比度敏感性)和常用视觉任务范式(如双眼竞争)两个视角,评述了有关抑郁个体在视知觉加工方面的特点。这些研究总体上反映了抑郁个体在视知觉加工的不同层级水平上均受到了损害。未来的研究可以在区分不同抑郁亚型的基础上,尝试使用视知觉加工任务的指标作为区分抑郁个体和非抑郁个体的客观诊断手段。

  • Global Dryland Ecosystem Programme (G-DEP): Africa consultative meeting report

    分类: 地球科学 >> 地球科学史 提交时间: 2020-06-22 合作期刊: 《干旱区科学》

    摘要: In order to enhance and restore the ecosystems of natural capital in African arid regions, the Global Dryland Ecosystem Programme (G-DEP) consultative meeting was hosted in Dakar, Senegal, from 23 to 25 September 2019. This paper details the first African meeting of the G-DEP. Consultative meeting reviewed preceding dryland ecosystems case studies, identified vulnerable arid and semi-arid regions, and proposed sustainable solutions to problems. It also identified the successes and failures of previous attempts to improve vulnerable ecosystems and ultimately formed an action plan to improve these attempts. Climate, ecosystems, and livelihoods for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Great Green Wall Initiative (GGWI) for Sahara and Sahel, and China-Africa cooperation on science, technology, and innovation are three extra main sections concerned of the meeting. Separately, more specific topics as the complicated relationship between these natural processes and human activity, including pastoralism, soil restoration, and vegetation regenerate techniques, were fully discussed. Consultative meeting also identified the positive effects international collaboration can have on dryland regions, specifically in the capacity of sharing information, technology, and innovation on purpose to develop a joint proposal for long-term research programs in African arid and semi-arid areas. Moreover, meetings that review the progress made on ecosystem management for the sustainable livelihoods in Africa, identification of priority areas, and the development and implementation of ecosystem programs for proper research and collaboration in African arid and semi-arid zones, have been proposed as strategic recommendations to enhance the global partnership for sustainable development. Furthermore, as the outcomes of the workshop, there are three steps proposed to handle African dryland climate changes, several aspects suggested to solve current dilemmas of the GGWI, and a series of actions recommended for G-DEP related activities in Africa.

  • Market opportunities do not explain the ability of herders to meet livelihood objectives over winter on the Mongolian Plateau

    分类: 地球科学 >> 地球科学史 提交时间: 2020-06-22 合作期刊: 《干旱区科学》

    摘要: Drylands under pastoral land use are considered one of the most vulnerable social-ecological systems to global climate change, but the herders' abilities to adapt to the different extreme weather events have received little attention in the drylands. Herders on the Mongolian Plateau (MP; including Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China and Mongolia), have had a long history of adapting climatic variability and extreme weather events. However, it is unclear how changes such as increased levels of infrastructure and market integration affect the ability of herders to achieve the key livelihood objectives: the minimisation of the death and abortion rates of livestock in the winter. Here, we used remotely sensed and household survey data to map, model and explore the climate exposure and sensitivity of herders in the settled area (Inner Mongolia of China) and nomadic area (Mongolia) in the winter of 2012–2013. We aimed to quantify the multi-scaled characteristics of both climate exposure and sensitivity through the lens of key adaptive strategies utilized by herders. Our results showed that the higher levels of infrastructure and market integration, and the lower levels of remoteness on the MP did not increase the herders' ability to achieve the key livelihood objectives. Our results also suggested that exposure to the snow that is comparatively greater than the long-term average (cumulative exposure) may be more important in determining the social-ecological vulnerability than absolute exposure. We suggested that neither the risk management strategies available to these herders, nor the demographic variables, could compensate for the mode of production governing the pastoral systems. Our study could provide further evidence for the complex and scaled nature of climate exposure and sensitivity, and the results imply that any analysis of the relationship among exposure, sensitivity and vulnerability of pastoral households to climate change in the drylands will require a multi-scaled and interdisciplinary approach.

  • Effects of rodent-induced disturbance on eco-physiological traits of Haloxylon ammodendron in the Gurbantunggut Desert, Xinjiang, China

    分类: 地球科学 >> 地球科学史 提交时间: 2020-06-22 合作期刊: 《干旱区科学》

    摘要: Disturbance by rodents alters the morphologies and nutrients of plants as well as the physical-chemical properties of the soils. Changes in plants are considered to be mechanisms of defense against the disturbance by rodents. Rodents gnaw on the assimilating branches of Haloxylon ammodendron (CA Mey.) Bunge and burrow under the bushes in the desert ecosystems of Xinjiang, China. However, eco-physiological responses of different age groups of H. ammodendron to the disturbance by rodents are not well understood. In this study, soil physical-chemical properties under the shrubs and the above-ground morphological, physiological and biochemical features of assimilating branches of H. ammodendron of different age groups (i.e., young, 30−100 cm; middle-aged, 100−200 cm; and mature, >200 cm) in burrowed and non-burrowed (control) areas were studied in 2018. We found that disturbance by rodents significantly increased the crown width and total branching rates of young and middle-aged H. ammodendron. Photosynthetic pigment contents of assimilating branches of H. ammodendron were significantly reduced under the disturbance by rodents. In term of plant nutrients, the main differences among different age groups of H. ammodendron under the disturbance by rodents occurred in the total soluble sugar and reducing sugar contents that decreased in young plants, increased in middle-aged plants, and did not affect in mature plants. Crude protein and phosphorus contents significantly increased, while crude fiber and calcium contents significantly decreased in young plants. Crude fat and calcium contents significantly decreased in middle-aged plants. Soil organic matter (SOM), total nitrogen (TN), available nitrogen (AN) and available potassium (AK) contents in the topsoil (0–20 cm), which are conducive to forming ''fertile islands'', also increased under the disturbance by rodents. In particular, soil AN and AK were the major factors affecting the above-ground morphological characteristics of H. ammodendron in burrowed areas. Overall, the response and defense strategies of H. ammodendron to the disturbance by rodents differed among different age groups, and the effect of the disturbance by rodents on H. ammodendron gradually weakened with the increasing plant age.

  • Does cotton bollworm show cross-resistance to the Bacillus thuringiensis toxins Cry1Ac and Cry2Ab? A mini review

    分类: 地球科学 >> 地球科学史 提交时间: 2020-06-22 合作期刊: 《干旱区科学》

    摘要: Since 1996, transgenic Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton has been commercially grown in numerous countries in an effort to stem the losses caused by key lepidopteran pests. However, the development of pest resistance to Bt toxins has jeopardized the continued utilization of Bt cotton. As a strategy designed to circumvent the development of resistance, Bt cotton varieties expressing two or more toxins targeting the same pest have been introduced. Nevertheless, from the perspective of long-term planting of Bt cotton, the potential risk of cross-resistance to these Bt toxins is a threat that cannot be ignored. In this paper, we review current research (including that based on the analysis of protein binding sites and resistance genes) on the resistance of cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera) to the Bt toxins Cry1Ac and Cry2Ab and the interrelationship between these toxins. On the basis of existing evidence, we assume that the actions of Cry1Ac and Cry2Ab against cotton bollworm are not completely independent, and then propose the ''resistance-associated gene mutation potential hypothesis''. Although the mechanisms underlying the resistance of pests to Bt toxins are yet to be comprehensively elucidated, this hypothesis could undoubtedly have important implications for adopting ''pyramid'' strategy in the future. Further research is recommended to devise strategies to retard the development of H. armigera resistance to Bt cotton, either using different Bt toxins or their various combinations.

  • Origin and circulation of saline springs in the Kuqa Basin of the Tarim Basin, Northwest China

    分类: 地球科学 >> 地球科学史 提交时间: 2020-06-22 合作期刊: 《干旱区科学》

    摘要: It is widely accepted that hydrogeochemistry of saline springs is extremely important to understand the water circulation and evolution of saline basins and to evaluate the potential of potassium-rich evaporites. The Kuqa Basin, located in the northern part of the Tarim Basin in Northwest China, is a saline basin regarded as the most potential potash-seeking area. However, the origin and water circulation processes of saline springs have yet to be fully characterized in this saline basin. In this study, a total of 30 saline spring samples and 11 river water samples were collected from the Qiulitage Structural Belt (QSB) of the Kuqa Basin. They were analyzed for major (K+, Ca2+, Na+, Mg2+, SO42, Cl and HCO3) and trace (Sr2+ and Br) ion concentrations, stable H-O-Sr isotopes and tritium concentrations in combination with previously published hydrogeochemical and isotopic (H-O) data in the same area. It is found that the water chemical type of saline springs in the study area belonged to the Na-Cl type, and that of river water belonged to the Ca-Mg-HCO3-SO4 type. The total dissolved solid (TDS) of saline springs in the QSB ranged from 117.77 to 314.92 g/L, reaching the brine level. On the basis of the general chemical compositions and the characteristics of the stable H-O-Sr isotopes of saline springs, we infer that those saline springs mainly originated from precipitation following river water recharging. In addition, we found that saline springs were not formed by evapo-concentration because it is unlikely that the high chloride concentration of saline springs resulted in evapo-concentration and high salinity. Therefore, we conclude that saline spring water may have experienced intense evapo-concentration before dissolving the salty minerals or after returning to the surface. The results show that the origin of salinity was mainly dominated by dissolving salty minerals due to the river water and/or precipitation that passed through the halite-rich stratum. Moreover, there are two possible origins of saline springs in the QSB: one is the infiltration of the meteoric water (river water), which then circulates deep into the earth, wherein it dissolves salty minerals, travels along the fault and returns to the surface; another is the mixture of formation water, or the mixture of seawater or marine evaporate sources and its subsequent discharge to the surface under fault conditions. Our findings provide new insight into the possible saltwater circulation and evolution of saline basins in the Tarim Basin.

  • Prediction of meteorological drought in arid and semi-arid regions using PDSI and SDSM: a case study in Fars Province, Iran

    分类: 地球科学 >> 地球科学史 提交时间: 2020-06-22 合作期刊: 《干旱区科学》

    摘要: Drought is one of the most significant environmental disasters, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. Drought indices as a tool for management practices seeking to deal with the drought phenomenon are widely used around the world. One of these indicators is the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), which is used in many parts of the world to assess the drought situation and continuation. In this study, the drought state of Fars Province in Iran was evaluated by using the PDSI over 1995–2014 according to meteorological data from six weather stations in the province. A statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to apply the output results of the general circulation model in Fars Province. To implement data processing and prediction of climate data, a statistical period 1995–2014 was considered as the monitoring period, and a statistical period 2019–2048 was for the prediction period. The results revealed that there is a good agreement between the simulated precipitation (R2>0.63; R2, determination coefficient; MAE0.95, MAE<1.74, and RMSE<1.78) with the observed data from the stations. The results of the drought monitoring model presented that dry periods would increase over the next three decades as compared to the historical data. The studies showed the highest drought in the meteorological stations Abadeh and Lar during the prediction period under two future scenarios representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). According to the results of the validation periods and efficiency criteria, we suggest that the SDSM is a proper tool for predicting drought in arid and semi-arid regions.

  • 黄土高原恢复草地土壤水分对降水响应及模拟

    分类: 环境科学技术及资源科学技术 >> 环境科学技术基础学科 提交时间: 2020-06-22 合作期刊: 《干旱区研究》

    摘要: 降水是干旱半旱地区土壤水分的主要来源,对该区植被恢复具有重要意义。本文采用EC-5土壤水分传感器对2014—2015年0~120 cm土壤水分进行连续监测,研究了退耕后不同恢复年限草地土壤水分动态变化及其0~40 cm土壤10 min时间尺度土壤水分对降水的响应。结果表明:土壤水分从恢复5 a草地向恢复15 a草地逐渐降低,这种降低趋势在恢复30 a草地减弱。恢复5 a草地土壤水分增幅最小,响应次数最少。单次降雨事件中,土壤水分增长过程和衰减过程均符合Logistic模型。恢复5 a草地相对稳定期(平台期)历时最长;恢复15 a草地土壤水分在表层(0~5,5~10 cm)增速最快,而在下层(20~40 cm)增速减慢且响应时间滞后;恢复30 a草地在下层(20~40 cm)增速最快。建议对恢复草地应适当采取措施,促进降雨向深层土壤水分转化,并减少恢复初期平台期历时。

  • Assessing the collapse risk of Stipa bungeana grassland in China based on its distribution changes

    分类: 地球科学 >> 地球科学史 提交时间: 2020-06-22 合作期刊: 《干旱区科学》

    摘要: The criteria used by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) for its Red List of Ecosystems (RLE) are the global standards for ecosystem-level risk assessment, and they have been increasingly used for biodiversity conservation. The changed distribution area of an ecosystem is one of the key criteria in such assessments. The Stipa bungeana grassland is one of the most widely distributed grasslands in the warm-temperate semi-arid regions of China. However, the total distribution area of this grassland was noted to have shrunk and become fragmented because of its conversion to cropland and grazing-induced degradation. Following the IUCN-RLE standards, here we analyzed changes in the geographical distribution of this degraded grassland, to evaluate its degradation and risk of collapse. Past (1950–1980) distribution areas were extracted from the Vegetation Map of China (1:1,000,000). Present realizable distribution areas were equated to these past areas minus any habitat area losses. We then predicted the grassland's present and future (under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario) potential distribution areas using maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt), based on field survey data and nine environmental layers. Our results showed that the S. bungeana grassland was mainly distributed in the Loess Plateau, Hexi Corridor, and low altitudes of the Qilian Mountains and Longshou Mountain. This ecosystem occurred mainly on loess soils, kastanozems, steppe aeolian soils and sierozems. Thermal and edaphic factors were the most important factors limiting the distribution of S. bungeana grassland across China. Since 56.1% of its past distribution area (4.9×104 km2) disappeared in the last 50 a, the present realizable distribution area only amounts to 2.2×104 km2. But only 15.7% of its present potential distribution area (14.0×104 km2) is actually occupied by the S. bungeana grassland. The future potential distribution of S. bungeana grassland was predicted to shift towards northwest, and the total area of this ecosystem will shrink by 12.4% over the next 50 a under the most pessimistic climate change scenario. Accordingly, following the IUCN-RLE criteria, we deemed the S. bungeana grassland ecosystem in China to be endangered (EN). Revegetation projects and the establishment of protected areas are recommended as effective ways to avert this looming crisis. This empirical modeling study provides an example of how IUCN-RLE categories and criteria may be valuably used for ecosystem assessments in China and abroad.