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1. chinaXiv:202002.00065 [pdf]

Potential of Arbidol for Post-exposure Prophylaxis of COVID-19 Transmission

Bo,Hu; Wenjing,Wang; Jingnong,Zhang; Bo,Peng; Wei,Peng; Yisheng,Zhang; Yaling,Wang; Jiang,Chang; Ling,Mao; Yan,Wan; Xiaoping,Miao; Yifan,Zhou; Yanan,Li; Yu,Hu
Subjects: Medicine, Pharmacy >> Clinical Medicine

Background: The efficient transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-2 Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) from patients to healthcare workers or family members has been a worrisome and prominent feature of the ongoing outbreak. On the basis of clinical practice and in-vitro studies, we postulated that post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) using Arbidol is associated with decreased infection among individuals exposed to confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection. Methods: We conducted a retrospective case-control study on family members and health care workers who were exposed to patients confirmed to have SARS-CoV-2 infection by real-time RT-PCR and Chest CT from January 1 to January 16, 2020. We collected demographic information, work location of exposure, post-exposure prophylaxis information, and symptoms, if any, 24 days after exposure. The relation between post-exposure prophylaxis and infection in household contacts and healthcare workers were respectively analyzed. Results: 27 families and 124 health care workers had evidence of close exposure to patients with confirmed COVID-19. There were no differences in age, profession and sex distribution in the two groups with different post-exposure prophylaxis, table 1. Logistic regression based on the data of the family members and health care workers with Arbidol or Oseltamivir prophylaxis showed that Arbidol PEP was a strong protective factor against the development of COVID-19 (Odds ratio 0·011 , 95% CI 0·001-0·125, P=0·0003 for family members and Odds ratio 0·049, 95%CI 0·003-0·717), P= 0·0276 for health care workers). On the contrary, Oseltamivir was associated with an increase in COVID-19 infection (Odds ratio 20·446, 95% CI 1·407-297·143, P= 0·0271). Conclusions: Our findings suggest Arbidol could reduce the infection risk of the novel coronavirus in hospital and family settings. This treatment should be promoted for PEP use and should be the subject of further investigation.

submitted time 2020-02-25 Hits145Downloads65 Comment 0

2. chinaXiv:202002.00066 [pdf]


诸葛昌靖; 张东艳; 杨武岳; 彭梁榕; 洪柳
Subjects: Mathematics >> Modeling and Simulation

基于经典动力学模型和模型参数自动优化算法, 本文分析了全国当前累计确诊感染病例数大于100(截止到2020年2月16日)的24个省市自治区, 以及湖北省除神农架以外的16个地市从2020年1月20日至2月16日的累计确诊病例数, 并对相应省市地区疫情可能的结束时间和总感染人数的进行了长期预测. 我们的研究表明, 在目前严防严控措施下, 全国大部分省市的疫情将于2月底前基本结束, 而湖北省内疫情也有望于3月中旬结束, 但是武汉市的疫情可能要持续到4月初. 通过对比公开数据与预测值, 我们建议加强对黑龙江、河北、江西、安徽、贵州和四川六省, 以及湖北省内武汉、荆州、鄂州、随州、天门和恩施六个地市的的监控, 以防疫情死灰复燃. 此外, 分析结果提示, 在疫情发展前期, 天津、河北、重庆、四川、海南和广西等省, 以及湖北省下辖多个地市可能存在着聚集性感染, 这有待于疫后进一步的流行病学调查确认.

submitted time 2020-02-25 Hits174Downloads126 Comment 0

3. chinaXiv:202002.00064 [pdf]


董念念; 王雪莉
Subjects: Psychology >> Management Psychology


submitted time 2020-02-25 Hits35Downloads11 Comment 0

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