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1. chinaXiv:201805.00539 [pdf]

Enhancement of the Prediction Accuracy of Pole Coordinates withEmpirical Mode Decomposition

Zhao Danning; Lei Yu; CaiHongbing
分类: 天文学 >> 天文学

This paper is aimed at separation treatment of low- and high-frequency components in polar motion forecasting and thenimproving time-series predictions. For the purpose, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is employed as a filter to extract low- and high-frequency signals from original pole coordinate data. The decomposition of the pole motion observations between 1986 and 2015 from the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) C04 seriesillustrates that the low-frequency fluctuations including inter-decadal, inter-annual, Chandler and annual wobbles and shorter-period high-frequency oscillationscan be separated from the observed time-series by the EMD. On the basis of separation, the least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual and Chandler wobbles and for the linear trend are used for deterministic prediction of the low-frequency fluctuations, while the autoregressive (AR) technology is applied to forecasting the high-frequency oscillations plus LS fitting residuals. Pole coordinateforecasts are calculated as the sum of LS extrapolation and AR predictions (LS+AR).We have evaluated the accuracy of our long-term predictions (up to 1 year in the future) in comparison with the IERS official predictions in terms of year-by-year statistics of 5 years. It is shown that the accuracy of the LS+AR methodcan be significantly improved using a combination of the EMD and LS+AR (EMD+LS+AR). Also, the proposed prediction strategyoverall outperforms the IERS solutions. In addition, the predictions are compared with those from the Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (EOP PCC). The comparison demonstrates that the developed schemeis a very accurate approach to predict polar motion. According to this study, it is concluded that polar motion predictions may be enhanced through separation treatment of different time-scale fluctuations and thus such processing seems to be necessary in pole coordinate prediction.

提交时间: 2018-05-28 来自合作期刊:《天文研究与技术》 点击量2072下载量145 评论 0

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