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1. chinaXiv:202107.00013 [pdf]

On the origin of SARS-CoV-2–The blind watchmaker argument

Chung-I Wu; Haijun Wen; Jian Lu; Xiao-dong Su; Alice C. Hughes; Weiwei Zhai; Chen Chen; Hua Chen; Mingkun Li; Shuhui Song; Zhaohui Qian; Qihui Wang; Bingjie Chen; Zixiao Guo; Yongsen Ruan; Xuemei Lu; Fuwen Wei; Li Jin; Le Kang; Yongbiao Xue
Subjects: Biology >> Virology
Subjects: Medicine, Pharmacy >> Preventive Medicine and Hygienics

In the comparison with SARS-CoV of 2003, SARS-CoV-2 is extremely well adapted to the human populations and its adaptive shift from the animal host to humans must have been even more extensive. By the blind watchmaker argument, such an adaptive shift can only happen prior to the onset of the current pandemic and with the aid of step-by-step selection. In this view, SARS-CoV-2 could not have possibly evolved in an animal market in a big city and even less likely in a laboratory. Discussions of the origin of SARS-CoV-2 need to factor in the long process of adaptive shift and some models have indeed advanced in that direction.

submitted time 2021-07-17 Hits16448Downloads1711 Comment 0

2. chinaXiv:202003.00003 [pdf]

COVID-19 outbreak increased risk of schizophrenia in aged adults

Hu, Wei; Su, Li; Qiao, Juan; Zhu, Jing; Zhou, Yi
Subjects: Psychology >> Clinical and Counseling Psychology
Subjects: Medicine, Pharmacy >> Preventive Medicine and Hygienics

We noticed an unusual increase of first-time patients with schizophrenia (F20) in January 2020 since the outbreak of COVID-19. The aim of this retrospective study is to validate this observation and find potential risk factors, if applicable. A total number of 13,783 records from outpatients in January 2020 were investigated thoroughly. Comparisons between incidence of schizophrenia in outpatients in January 2020 and similar periods of 2017-2019 were made to minimize seasonal influence. Relationship of incidence of schizophrenia and COVID-19 infections in China was calculated. Limited personal information (age, gender, approximate residence) was analyzed to find risk factors.After excluding seasonal factors such as Spring festival, a positive relationship between incidence of schizophrenia in first-time patients and countrywide epidemic situation was found. Statistical results further showed a significant increase of median age from 39 to 50 for first-time patients diagnosed with schizophrenia which is unusual. Meanwhile, a slight but not significant change was found in distribution of gender and approximate residence (urban/suburb). Our data supported that COVID-19 outbreak increased risk of schizophrenia in aged adults which is consistent with the fact that COVID-19 is more lethal to elders. We strongly appeal that public healthcare in countries either with or without infected patients should prepare in advance for potential risks in public mental health.

submitted time 2020-02-29 Hits45407Downloads7565 Comment 0

3. chinaXiv:202002.00079 [pdf]

基于移动平均预测限预判新型冠状病毒感染疫情趋势与适时风险分级

何豪; 何韵婷; 翟晶; 王筱金; 王炳顺
Subjects: Medicine, Pharmacy >> Preventive Medicine and Hygienics
Subjects: Statistics >> Biomedical Statistics

目的 建立一种数据驱动的实用方法预测突发全新传染性疾病的疫情趋势,通过动态预判疫情风险与分级为防控策略提供量化依据。方法 在移动平均法的基础上予以改进,提出一种移动平均预测限(Moving Average Prediction Limits, MAPL)方法,采用既往重症急性呼吸综合征(Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome,SARS)疫情数据验证MAPL方法对疫情趋势和风险预判的实用性。追踪本次新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)感染疫情从2020年1月16日起的官方公布数据,采用MAPL方法预判疫情变动趋势与疫区适时风险分级。 结果 基于MAPL方法分析显示,2020年2月初全国COVID-19感染疫情达到峰值。经过前期积极防控,2月中旬起全国疫情整体呈下降趋势。到2月下旬各地疫情有明显的区域性差异。与湖北地区相比,非湖北地区新增病例数下降速度快且未来疫情加重的风险相对较小。在几个重要的疫情输入省份,新增确诊病例数和可疑病例数的发展趋势一致,但消减速度在各省份间存在差异。 结论 MAPL方法可以辅助判断疫情趋势并适时预判风险分级,各疫情输入区可结合当地实际与疫情风险分级规划落实差异化精准防控策略。

submitted time 2020-02-28 Hits36860Downloads5616 Comment 0

4. chinaXiv:202002.00071 [pdf]

Potential treatment of Chinese and Western Medicine targeting nsp14 of 2019 nCov

Liu Chao ; Zhu Xiaoxiao ; Lu Yiyao ; Jia Xu ; Yang Tai
Subjects: Medicine, Pharmacy >> Pharmacology
Subjects: Medicine, Pharmacy >> Preventive Medicine and Hygienics

2019年12月,自武汉开始我国爆发严重的新型冠状病毒(2019-nCoV)感染疫情,急需开发2019-nCoV治疗药物。冠状病毒非结构蛋白 (Nonstructural protein, NSP) 在病毒基因组复制以及转录过程中起重要作用,在冠状病毒家族中普遍保守,是冠状病毒重要功能蛋白。其中,NSP14蛋白兼具核酸外切酶和甲基转移酶功能,是抗SARS和其他冠状病毒药物研究的重要靶点。序列分析表明, SARS coronavirus (PDB ID: 5nfy) 与武汉华南海鲜批发市场新型冠状病毒分离毒株 (GenBank: MN985325.1)氨基酸序列同源性为98.7%。本研究通过已发表的SARS-NSP14晶体结构 (PDB ID: 5nfy) 进行同源建模,构建2019-nCoV-NSP14的蛋白三维结构模型,对其N端-甲基转移酶以及C端-甲基转移酶结构功能域分别进行虚拟筛选,筛选出了18个对NSP14有抑制活性的化合物。其中沙奎那韦 (Saquinavir)、溴隐亭 (Bromocriptine)、黄芩苷 (Baicalein) 以及金丝桃素 (Hypericin) 能同时作用于NSP14蛋白上述两个重要功能域。该结果提示已知抗HIV药物-Saquinavir以及中药抗病毒重要活性成分-黄芩苷以及金丝桃素,可能以2019-nCoV-NSP14蛋白为靶标,发挥抗病毒效应,可作为抗2019-nCov候选药物进行下一步研究。

submitted time 2020-02-27 Hits33553Downloads3032 Comment 0

5. chinaXiv:202002.00028 [pdf]

新型冠状病毒(2019-nCoV)时空数据集及其典型应用

林浩; 鲍君雅
Subjects: Survey & Drawing Science and Technology >> Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing
Subjects: Medicine, Pharmacy >> Preventive Medicine and Hygienics
Subjects: Statistics >> Biomedical Statistics

目前,新型冠状病毒(2019-nCoV)疫情正受到全球各科研工作者的广泛关注。然而,当前尚没有一个官方的渠道对2019-nCoV疫情数据进行实时开源,为了促进本次疫情相关的科研工作,本研究旨在为广大科研工作者提供权威的、开放的和多尺度的新型冠状病毒(2019-nCoV)时空数据集,为疫情监测、防控、预测和预警提供重要的数据来源。此外,该数据集还能应用于2019-nCoV疫情的多尺度、多时相制图和可视化,为疫情的空间分布、演化、趋势分析和模拟预测提供指导。

submitted time 2020-02-19 Hits46354Downloads7061 Comment 0

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