A systematic method for technology assessment: Illustrated for ‘Big Data’
摘要：Technology assessment is a systematic examination of the effects on or of new developments such as technologies, processes, policies, organizations, and so on. In this paper, we present a systematic method for technology assessment, as a part of the suite of tools for Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP). We explore means to combine tech mining tools with human intelligence in several idea exchange rounds to uncover potential secondary effects, and array them in terms of likelihood and magnitude. Big Data is studied as the case study. This is on-going research. We are currently on the 2nd round of stage 2. Technology assessment is a necessary component of FIP. It identifies areas in which significant impacts may occur, their likelihood, and their significance. The forecaster must evaluate these impacts, consider measures to enhance or inhibit them, and factor them into the planning process for developing the technology.